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The sound of “Trump”ets!

Mr Donald Trump was inaugurated as US President a few weeks ago and based on the many "emotional" headlines one is left scratching their head as to what it all means.

And perhaps the answer is, it doesn't mean much. I think a certain scribe put it very well when they said; why would you take the opinion from people who couldn't predict Trump's victory as to what it all may mean. It's a fair point!

When Trump got elected back in November the consensus was that it was a disaster. A few months later, the USA sharemarket has hit new highs (and other markets have performed well) and there is an investment belief that his policies could (at least) be positive for US economic growth.

But the investment world is complex and economies are more complex. And so, it never makes sense to spend too much time on politics. So let's sound the Trumpet J and summarise what the current investing environment has to offer:

  • The Australian sharemarket is fair value based on Price to Earnings ratio (noting it is yet to get back to its 2007 all-time high);
  • Bond yields are priced to deliver low nominal returns over 10 years (10 year bond is yielding around 2.78%);
  • Cash rates are low and expected to stay that way at least in 2017;
  • Residential yields are low and prices are elevated;
  • Listed Property Trusts are yielding around 5% to 6% ignoring the possibility of some growth.

It is true to say that Mr Trump will have some effects on the global economy and in particular the US economy. But, as we said back in our blog piece last September "as governments have historically done, some money may go to appropriate areas (e.g. infrastructure) while other tax dollars will be wasted". It will be no different in the US.

The future is unknowable. But that's ok! We can ignore the "Trump" and focus on the aspects of our Plan we can control.

Invest via the right structures (predominantly superannuation); Buy good quality assets and invest with quality investment managers; Manage personal risks; And then allow time do what it does best. But regularly review all these matters.

And if you have any questions or concerns or just require some assistance, please always speak to your adviser.


From the team at RJN Financial Solutions.



 

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